I just picked up a copy of The Black Swan, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, at a Barnes and Noble store. Nassim, a scholar on randomness and knowledge, dives into, “the impact of the highly improbable.” I had originally heard the word, “Black Swan,” at the 2008 SARMA conference, and after talking to several members learned about its controversial meaning. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event that has three principles:

It is unpredictable.

It carries a massive impact.

An explanation is attempted to make the event appear less random and more predictable, after the fact.

The notion of a Black Swan is relevant to any risk analyst, and while many experienced professionals argue that Nassim has over-dramatized this theory, his book is arguably an interesting read.